Open HSI menu
Subscribe Login

Home / Articles and Press Releases / Press Release / How Contagious is the Wuhan coronavirus?

CATEGORIES

  • Latest Issue
  • Above The Neck Protection
  • Chemical Protection
  • Confined Space
  • Construction
  • Emergency Procedures
  • Energy, Oil and Mining Industries
  • Eye Protection
  • Fall Protection
  • Gas Detection
  • Hand Protection
  • Hazardous and Explosive Atmospheres
  • Health and Safety Awareness
  • Hearing Protection
  • Heat and Flame
  • Lighting and ATEX
  • Noise Monitoring
  • Personal Protective Equipment
  • Respiratory Protection
  • Safety Footwear
  • Safety Technology
  • Safety Training
  • Slips, Trips and Falls
  • Wellbeing at Work
  • Working at Height
  • Working Rights

MORE

  • Press Releases
  • Events
  • Videos
  • Webinars
  • Magazines

COMPANY

  • About
  • Advertising
  • Newsletter
  • Contact
Open HSI menu
Subscribe

Home / Articles and Press Releases / Press Release / How Contagious is the Wuhan coronavirus?

CATEGORIES

  • Latest Issue
  • Above The Neck Protection
  • Chemical Protection
  • Confined Space
  • Construction
  • Emergency Procedures
  • Energy, Oil and Mining Industries
  • Eye Protection
  • Fall Protection
  • Gas Detection
  • Hand Protection
  • Hazardous and Explosive Atmospheres
  • Health and Safety Awareness
  • Hearing Protection
  • Heat and Flame
  • Lighting and ATEX
  • Noise Monitoring
  • Personal Protective Equipment
  • Respiratory Protection
  • Safety Footwear
  • Safety Technology
  • Safety Training
  • Slips, Trips and Falls
  • Wellbeing at Work
  • Working at Height
  • Working Rights

MORE

  • Press Releases
  • Events
  • Videos
  • Webinars
  • Magazines

COMPANY

  • About
  • Advertising
  • Newsletter
  • Contact

CATEGORIES

  • Article
  • Press Release
  • Above The Neck Protection
  • Chemical Protection
  • Confined Space
  • Construction
  • Emergency Procedures
  • Energy, Oil and Mining Industries
  • Eye Protection
  • Fall Protection
  • Gas Detection
  • Hand Protection
  • Hazardous and Explosive Atmospheres
  • Health and Safety Awareness
  • Hearing Protection
  • Heat and Flame
  • Lighting and ATEX
  • Noise Monitoring
  • Personal Protective Equipment
  • Respiratory Protection
  • Safety Footwear
  • Safety Technology
  • Safety Training
  • Slips, Trips and Falls
  • Wellbeing at Work
  • White Papers
  • Working at Height
  • Working Rights

Press Release

How Contagious is the Wuhan coronavirus?

By The Conversation

| Read Bio

Published: February 03rd, 2020

Share this article

Cases of the Wuhan coronavirus have increased dramatically over the past week, prompting concerns about how contagious the virus is and how it spreads.

According to the World Health Organisation, 16-21% of people with the virus in China became severely ill and 2-3% of those infected have died.

A key factor that influences transmission is whether the virus can spread in the absence of symptoms – either during the incubation period (the days before people become visibly ill) or in people who never get sick.

On Sunday, Chinese officials said transmission had occurred during the incubation period.

So what does the evidence tell us so far?

Can you transmit it before you get symptoms?

Influenza is the classic example of a virus that can spread when people have no symptoms at all.

In contrast, people with SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) only spread the virus when they had symptoms.

No published scientific data are available to support China’s claim transmission of the Wuhan coronavirus occurred during the incubation period.

However, one study published in the Lancet medical journal showed children may be shedding (or transmitting) the virus while asymptomatic. The researchers found one child in an infected family had no symptoms but a chest CT scan revealed he had pneumonia and his test for the virus came back positive.

File 20200128 81369 sgmjyn - hsi -
2-3% of those infected with the Wuhan coronavirus in China have died. Yuan Zheng/AAP

This is different to transmission in the incubation period, as the child never got ill, but it suggests it’s possible for children and young people to be infectious without having any symptoms.

This is a concern because if someone gets sick, you want to be able to identify them and track their contacts. If someone transmits the virus but never gets sick, they may not be on the radar at all.

It also makes airport screening less useful because people who are infectious but don’t have symptoms would not be detected.

How infectious is it?

The Wuhan coronavirus epidemic began when people exposed to an unknown source at a seafood market in Wuhan began falling ill in early December.

Cases remained below 50 to 60 in total until around January 20, when numbers surged. There have now been more than 4,500 cases – mostly in China – and 106 deaths.

Researchers and public health officials determine how contagious a virus is by calculating a reproduction number, or R0. The R0 is the average number of other people that one infected person will infect, in a completely non-immune population.

Different experts have estimated the R0 of the Wuhan coronavirus is anywhere from 1.4 to over five, however the World Health Organisation believes the RO is between 1.4 and 2.5.

Here’s how a virus with a R0 of two spreads:

File 20200128 120039 bogv2t - hsi -
The Conversation, CC BY-ND

If the R0 was higher than 2-3, we should have seen more cases globally by mid January, given Wuhan is a travel and trade hub of 11 million people.

How is it transmitted?

Of the person-to-person modes of transmission, we fear respiratory transmission the most, because infections spread most rapidly this way.

Two kinds of respiratory transmission are through large droplets, which is thought to be short-range, and airborne transmission on much smaller particles over longer distances. Airborne transmission is the most difficult to control.

SARS was considered to be transmitted by contact and over short distances by droplets but can also be transmitted through smaller aerosols over long distances. In Hong Kong, infection was transmitted from one floor of a building to the next.

Initially, most cases of the Wuhan coronavirus were assumed to be from an animal source, localised to the seafood market in Wuhan.

We now know it can spread from person to person in some cases. The Chinese government announced it can be spread by touching and contact. We don’t know how much transmission is person to person, but we have some clues.

Coronaviruses are respiratory viruses, so they can be found in the nose, throat and lungs.

The amount of Wuhan coronavirus appears to be higher in the lungs than in the nose or throat. If the virus in the lungs is expelled, it could possibly be spread via fine, airborne particles, which are inhaled into the lungs of the recipient.

File 20200128 81336 dp3d9v - hsi -
We still don’t know exactly how it’s transmitted but it could be through fine, airborne particles. David Chang/AAP

How did the virus spread so rapidly?

The continuing surge of cases in China since January 18 – despite the lockdowns, extended holidays, travel bans and banning of the wildlife trade – could be explained by several factors, or a combination of:

  1. increased travel for New Year, resulting in the spread of cases around China and globally. Travel is a major factor in the spread of infections
  2. asymptomatic transmissions through children and young people. Such transmissions would not be detected by contact tracing because health authorities can only identify contacts of people who are visibly ill
  3. increased detection, testing and reporting of cases. There has been increased capacity for this by doctors and nurses coming in from all over China to help with the response in Wuhan
  4. substantial person-to-person transmission
  5. continued environmental or animal exposure to a source of infection.

However, with an incubation period as short as one to two days, if the Wuhan coronavirus was highly contagious, we would expect to already have seen widespread transmission or outbreaks in other countries.

Rather, the increase in transmission is likely due to a combination of the factors above, to different degrees. The situation is changing daily, and we need to analyse the transmission data as it becomes available.

Share this article

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

The Conversation

The Conversation is an independent source of news and views, sourced from the academic and research community and delivered direct to the public.

Visit Website

POPULAR POSTS BY The Conversation

Istock 1183990306 - hsi -

Article

High-filtration Masks Only Work When They Fit

Food factory - hsi -

Press Release

Coronavirus is Spreading Rapidly Through Workplaces

File 20200319 22622 o5ce9o - hsi -

Press Release

Coronavirus: World’s Response has Slashed CO2 Emissions

Istock 903412632 - hsi -

Press Release

Are you in Danger of Catching the Coronavirus?

File 20200128 81369 sgmjyn - hsi -

Press Release

How Contagious is the Wuhan coronavirus?

File 20200129 92964 74tntk - hsi -

Press Release

Fear Spreads Easily. That’s What Gives the Wuhan Coronavirus Economic Impact

Get email updates

Sign up for the HSI newsletter

Keep up-to-date through the power of email with Europe's largest audited safety magazine - delivering the latest news and products to satisfy all your occupational safety needs.
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

FEATURED ARTICLES

Article

 Thameslink Traffic Management Programme

Press Release

‘Working At Height’ Remains Biggest Danger

Press Release

“Uncertainty and Ignorance” Risks More Asbestos Deaths

Advertisement

SOCIAL MEDIA

HSI on Facebook

https://www.facebook.com/HSIMagazine/

Advertisement

SOCIAL MEDIA

HSI on Twitter

Retweet on TwitterHSI Magazine Retweeted
AvatarGFG Gas Detection UK Ltd@GFGGasDetection·
17h

Gas detection equipment for hazardous areas identified as an explosion risk must meet the requirements of the Equipment & Protective Systems Intended for Use in Potentially Explosive Atmospheres Regulations 1996 and will be CE marked & carry the εx symbol in a hexagon.

Reply on Twitter 1529424648823267330Retweet on Twitter 15294246488232673301Like on Twitter 1529424648823267330Twitter 1529424648823267330

Advertisement

SUBSCRIBE

Stay up to date with our newsletter

    • Keep up-to-date with Europe’s largest audited safety magazine

 

    • Delivering the latest news and products to satisfy all your occupational safety needs

 

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Subscribe

SUBSCRIBE TO HSI MAGAZINE

5 reasons to subscribe to our digital and print package

  • Stay up to date from anywhere in the world, with instant access to the latest issue straight from your phone, tablet or laptop.
  • Trust that you’re getting the best content from our range of internationally accredited authors.
  • Get full access to our archives and see how occupational safety has evolved with us over the years.
  • Enjoy our monthly newsletter curated with up-to-the-minute news and a selection of editor’s top picks.
  • Hot off the press and straight to your door – look forward to your own glossy copy of HSI, delivered five times a year
Subscribe View Subscription levels

STAY SAFE & INFORMED

Subscribe to the best health & safety articles, news, products and regulations

Find out more

Stay up to date with our newsletter

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

ABOUT

  • About HSI International
  • Advertise
  • Contact Us

YOUR ACCOUNT

Sign In Register Account Subscribe to HSI

RESOURCES

Request Media Pack

CONNECT

ACCREDITATIONS

Copyright Bay Publishing 2022. All Rights reserved.

Designed & Built by:
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookie Policy
We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies.
Cookie settingsACCEPT
Manage consent

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
CookieDurationDescription
cookielawinfo-checbox-analytics11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checbox-functional11 monthsThe cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checbox-others11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
viewed_cookie_policy11 monthsThe cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Performance
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Analytics
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Advertisement
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
Others
Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.
SAVE & ACCEPT